In 2012, China conducted a comprehensive series of missile trials consolidating its road-mobile, land-based and submarine-based nuclear deterrent. Of the five legally recognized nuclear weapon states, only China appears to be expanding the size of its nuclear arsenal. The nuclear arsenals of the other three legally recognized nuclear weapon states are considerably smaller, but all three states are either deploying new weapon systems or have announced their intention to do so. Since the nuclear weapon arsenals of Russia and the USA are by far the largest, one result has been that the total number of nuclear weapons in the world has been declining. At the same time, they continue to reduce their nuclear forces through the implementation of New START and through unilateral force reductions. Russia and the USA have major modernization programmes under way for nuclear delivery systems, warheads and production facilities. The legally recognized nuclear weapon statesĪll five legally recognized nuclear weapon states, as defined by the NPT-China, France, Russia, the UK and the USA-appear determined to remain nuclear powers for the indefinite future. In the absence of official declarations, the available information is often contradictory, incorrect or exaggerated. Reliable information on the operational status of the nuclear arsenals and capabilities of the three states that have never been party to the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)-India, Israel and Pakistan-is especially difficult to find. China remains highly non-transparent as part of its long-standing deterrence strategy. In contrast, transparency in Russia has decreased as a result of its decision not to publicly release detailed data about its strategic nuclear forces under the 2010 Russian–US New START treaty, even though it shares the information with the USA. France, the UK and the USA have recently disclosed important information about their nuclear capabilities. The availability of reliable information about the nuclear weapon states’ arsenals varies considerably. If all nuclear warheads are counted-operational warheads, spares, those in both active and inactive storage, and intact warheads scheduled for dismantlement-the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan and Israel possess a total of approximately 17 270 nuclear weapons. Nearly 2000 of these are kept in a state of high operational alert. At the start of 2013 eight states possessed approximately 4400 operational nuclear weapons.
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